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This Week In Mortgages
By admin | May 28, 2008
Mortgage rates dipped last week to a two month low. But we will likely see them bounce back up in response. Additionally, there is no indication they will go down any further. Inflation is the key driver here, and it is not letting up as the summer gets into full swing. We recommend getting a rate locked now, as they are still historically low.
Bankrate
When the stock markets lose triple digits and mortgage bonds don’t blink, it’s a pretty good sign we have greater odds for less bond demand — and higher rates. Still no indication that rates are breaking out of the channel they’ve been trading in for weeks. In a phrase, it’s the underlying value of the assets to which mortgage bonds are attached.
Rates fell last week, but they’ll bounce back up. Inflation hasn’t gone away, despite the weak economy. Mortgage rates respond to inflation.
HSH Market Trends
Mortgage rates staged a minor improvement last week, with HSH’s Fixed Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) sliding by six basis points, landing at a flat 6.50%. The FRMI includes rates from conforming, jumbo and the new “expanded conforming” loans. Hybrid 5/1 ARMs also dipped, shedding five basis points to land at 6.11%.
Conforming 30-year fixed rates declined by eight basis points (.08%), while jumbo 30-year FRMs shed seven basis points for the week. It is strange to say, but we should be cheering the lousy growth pattern. If the economy was moving upward, the additional demand would push inflation and interest rates higher. At present, all we can hope for is that the economy breaks inflation before inflation completely breaks the economy.
Overall mortgage interest rates managed a little improvement last week, surprisingly. More or less, rates have been generally flat for weeks, and that stability is a welcome stance in a weary market. Not much likelihood of a huge movement this week, but we may see rates rise a couple of basis points or so.
Mortgage Commentary
The Conference Board started this week’s economic releases with their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) May. It showed a weaker than expected level of confidence with a reading of 57.2 when it was forecasted to stand at 60.0. This was the lowest reading in 16 years, indicating that consumers are not very optimistic about their personal financial situations. This is considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it usually means consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future.
April’s New Home Sales data was also released today, revealing a higher level of sales than was expected. However, today’s report also revised March’s sales lower. This means that sales were weaker than thought in March, but the month to month increase was fairly large. This is bad news for bonds because a weak housing sector usually translates into weaker economic conditions in general.
Tomorrow morning we will see April’s Durable Goods Orders data. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. It is currently expected to show a decline in new orders of approximately 1.5%. If this report shows a stronger than expected reading, we should see mortgage rates rise because it indicates manufacturing growth.
If you have found the right home to buy, secure your financing today.
If you have an adjustable rate or need to get cash out of your home, don’t wait for rates to go up even more.
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This Week In Mortgages
By admin | December 17, 2007
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